March of 2009 was when the Dow had lost more than half its value in less than 18 months. When investors are afraid, they tend to hold more in cash, and at that time they showed they were afraid indeed: In March 2009, investors -- on average -- held a whopping 45% of their portfolios in cash.
That is easily the highest percentage in cash in two decades.
Today?
Well, today investors hold only 14.5% cash in their portfolios. If you can actually recall the previous time when so many investors had so little cash in their portfolios, well, that tells me you've been around since the year 2000 -- and that you recall the epic frenzy that preceded the dot-com bust.
So, yes: Today's cash allocation has reached an extreme comparable to the year 2000. In truth, however, at least one other allocation measure shows there is no comparison: Mutual Funds
Today's stock market frenzy exceeds the year 2007, the year 2000, even back to the year 1987.
It's a simple ratio comparing dollars in equity funds-to-dollars in money market, at major peaks over the past 40 years:
That's right. At the devastating market crash of October 1987, investors held $1 in equity funds for every $1 in a money market. Today ... investors hold $4.75 in equity funds for every $1 in a money market.
(3)
Though it sounds out of balance, the crazy bull could keep running, for how long nobody knows and very few cares, until it suddenly drops dead, catching everybody by surprise. And it won't be a pleasant surprise, that I can assure you.
住戶編號:1961896
的日記本
檢舉原因
心情: 
